Saturday, January 23, 2010

Breaking up is not too hard, after all




If Filipinos had a "free look" period of five to ten years, they would not take all that time but instead return the idea of a confederation (or federation) to the salesman immediately. Especially if the salesman is a Tagalog. Filipinos probably would claim that the confederation idea favors the Tagalogs too much and will put the other independent states in a deep hole.

Assuming that the partition of the Philippines is done along the lines of the 17 regions in the Philippines, the poorest regions would be Ilocos, Bicol, Eastern Visayas, Caraga and the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao.

Those regions would have per capita incomes of less than 20% of the figure for Metro Manila. In the case of the ARMM (Autonomous Region) the per capita GDP would be less than 12% of Metro Manila's.

Metro Manila, or more formally the National Capital Region, has an annual per capita income of $10,000+, with Makati having a whopping per capita of $29,000+ and Mandaluyong with an equally impressive $20,000+.

Metro Manila's per capita Gross Domestic Product is the 30th highest in the world. Beijing is barely ahead of Metro Manila, while Jakarta and Delhi, India are immediately behind Manila. Guangdog, China comes right after Delhi, and Bangkok is two places behind Guangdong.

Metro Manila is in giddy company. If Metro Manila becomes a separate country, it will look like Hongkong of a couple of decades ago.

Should the Visayans, the Ilocanos, Kapampangans, etc. reject the idea of a confederation as overwhelmingly favoring Metro Manila? If time were to be frozen, the answer is a resounding "Yes." This idea could be easily dismissed as a ploy by Manilenos to allow it to splinter from the archipelago known as Philippine Islands and never look back.

Time, however, stands still for no one. Along with time, huge changes will quickly follow. What are the prospects for the other regions which will now become independent states - alone or in combination with others?

Metro Manila has developed quickly since Independence on July 4, 1946 while the provinces, especially the remote areas, have stood still. Not completely stood still, for certainly progress has come to those areas albeit at a snail's pace. And it is progress at the barest of all minimums.

It's patchwork progress.

The first time I went back to the Philippines - in 1992, after a 25-year absence - I was dumbfounded when I saw the rivers in the rural areas. What used to be pristine rivers where the local damsels washed their laundry, all I could see were garbage strewn all over the banks, some sticking from beneath the water levels. People were using the rivers to dump their everyday castoffs.

Was there even garbage collection in those areas? In Boracay two years ago, the catamaran I took my family on was caught in a heavy downpour. We had to make an emergency landing in the back of the island. Then it struck me: that's where all the garbage and some of the sewage was ending up.

Even Paradise, it seemed, had been despoiled, all in the name of "progress".

Progress for the hinterlands has come at a tremendous cost. Because of a lack of infrastructure development at par with Manila's, the rural areas are overrun by the trappings of progress.

While people's garbage have increased a thousand-fold (progress is always accompanied by a geometric explosion of garbage), people still have no jobs or adequate education. People have nothing to look forward to but the prospect of going abroad someday - to Saudi Arabia, to Hongkong, to Malaysia, to Canada, California or New York. The luckiest ones have only to go to the nearest Western Union to claim remittances from relatives abroad.

The nearest convention center is in front of Aling Inday's sari-sari, where locals congregate at night to drink lambanog and trade jokes. Lately, the karaoke bars have served as the magnets for locals to trade jokes and drink.

The only truly significant, transformative progress over the years is the one that has come to Metro Manila, Cebu, Angeles City, Subic and Davao and only portions that are in excess of Metro Manila's needs have trickled off to the provinces. I know, some of you are thinking, what about Baguio, General Santos City, Cagayan de Oro? What about this and that city?

Once the regions become independent states, they will be able to carve their own destinies and implement laws that favor them. They will not need the permission of a Manila government to pursue their own dreams. All progress will accrue to them, not to an overbearing Metro Manila.

If the independent states wish to open their countries to foreign investments by scrapping the prohibition against foreign majority ownership of businesses, they will be free to do so. There will be no Manila government trying to stop them.

If those states want to scrap minimum wage laws to make them more competitive in the world market, there will be no Manila government frowning its face on them.

If those states want to offer their natural resources - industrial and precious metals - for development by foreign interests, there will be no Manila government trying to thwart their will.

If those states want to lease their territories to governments for commercial or military purposes, there will be no Metro Manila halting the construction.

If those states want to pursue social policies that differ from Manila's, they will be free to do so.

For example, if some independent states favor a more progressive family planning policy, there will be no Manila government or CBCP shaking a stick in their face. Spain, the source of the country's religiosity, has after all leaped into the 21st century and has legalized abortion (under certain strict conditions) and divorce. I do not personally favor abortion and divorce, but if the independent states want them, who am I to stand in their way?

Were some of the independent states to make ten-year temporary marriage contracts legal, there will be no overbearing CBCP to stop them. Because there will be no CBCP. Each independent state will have its own archbishop and lineup of bishops - or none at all, as in the case of the ARMM.

If some independent states want a more liberal or more aggressive tax policy, they will be free to follow their wishes, without some bureaucrat in Manila telling them they can't do it.

Each independent state shall be able to adopt economic, educational and social policies without interference from the other independent states. They will be free to set off on a course that is their very own.

All tax collections and revenues shall accrue to the states and will not go through Manila, where some funds are now being used to line pockets of some very powerful people there. There will be no corruption or favoritism at the national level, because there will be no national treasury to plunder or distribute to a national government's favorites.

Each state will be free to organize the equivalent of its own Bureau of Internal Revenue and Bureau of Customs. The old corruption-ridden BIR and Customs of the current Philippine government shall be scrapped and replaced, hopefully, with equivalent local agencies that will honestly collect income taxes and customs duties. It will be an opportunity to start over and set up tax collection agencies in the mold of the Internal Revenue Service of the U.S. In fact, I would advise the states to seek assistance from the U.S. government in setting up their Internal Revenue and Customs laws and offices.

Each state will have its own constitution and legal system. It can make justice happen as fast or as slow as its people want to. The corrupt arreglo system in Manila will be replaced by judicial systems that can dispense justice. Will there be a jury system? Only if the locals want it.

Finally, and most importantly, the focus of all activity in each of the independent states is the rise in the standard of living and educational level of their people. There will be no Manila-centric policies to pursue.

There is no doubt that the partitioning of the Philippines into independent states will be beneficial to the archipelago as a whole. We have to be careful, however, that the independent states we set up shall be economically and politically viable.

Because of what happened recently in Haiti, and more distantly in Somalia, the question of viability is front and center. Viability is the reason some states shall not be organized according to the ancient divisions of language and nations. For example, the Central Luzon state shall be made up of Kapampangans and Tagalogs.

I have tentatively drawn plans for setting up the various independent states and offer the following lineup. (All chartered cities shall be absorbed by the provinces where they are situated.)

1. Metro Manila, or National Capital Region.

2. Ilocandia - Ilocos, the Cagayan Valley Region, which includes Batanes, along with Abra, Benguet, Baguio City, Ifugao, Apayao, Kalinga and Mountain Province.

3. Central Luzon, made up of Pampanga, Bataan, Bulacan, Neva Ecija, Tarlac and Zambales.

4. Calabarzon - Cavite, Batangas, Laguna, Quezon, Aurora and Rizal.

5. Bicol Region - Albay, Camarines Norte and Sur, Catanduanes and Sorsogon.

6. Western Visayas and Mimaropa - Aklan, Antique, Guimaras Capiz, Iloilo, Negros Occidental, Marinduque, Mindoro, Palawan and Romblon.

7. Central and Eastern Visayas - Bohol, Cebu, Negros Oriental, Siquijor, Samar, Leyte and Biliran.

8. Northern Mindanao - Bukidnon, Camiguin, Lanao del Norte, Misamis Occidental and Oriental.

9. Central and Southern Mindanao - Davao peninsula, Cotabato, Sarangani, Sultan Kudarat, Agusan, Dinagat and Surigao.

10. Muslim Mindanao (Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao) - Basilan, Lanao del Sur, Maguindanao, Sulu and Tawi-Tawi.

There you have it, folks. Toss these in your heads and let's discuss. But before you hop on your soapboxes, I want you to know that upon breakup of the Philippines, the Metro Manila will be tasked with the development of Bicol to help that region become a viable state. The Bicolanos will have an incentive to build their nation properly, for the alternative will be their absorption into the Calabarzon state and resultant loss of the Bicolanos' country of their own.

Central Visayas, and Central and Southern Mindanao will be depended upon to help Northern Mindanao and the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao become viable states. If that doesn't work, the ARMM shall be allowed to break off in the future and become a part of Malaysia, while Northern Mindanao is absorbed by Central and Southern Mindanao.

I want to research these groups further, with an eye on economic viability for each of the states. This lineup is by no means final, so dear readers, please keep your comments and observations coming.

11 comments:

  1. Yugoslavia is an example of the breakup of a sovereign state into separate autonomous areas.
    One can see problems in whatever path is chosen.
    Do the advantages outweigh tehe disadvantages. Chai rightly points out that all progress tends to go to Manila, where there is good infrastructure, a case of the rich getting richer, but regional development may also mean duplication of facilities and waste of resources, as well as limiting economies of scale. Regionalisation seems to be heading towards centralisation, as seen in teh Euripean Community and ASEAN.
    There is no clear answer.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Sent by Alan Suyco via email:
    Cesar (and others),

    This is not directly related to your recent blog but it might give you some ideas for your future blogs. It gives a comprehensive history and very interesting perspective of the Philippines in the 1890s to early 1900s during the time of the Philippine Revolution against Spain and the Philippine-American War of 1899-1902. The site comes with many nice b&w photographs so quite an enjoyable and educational read..
    http://philippineamericanwar.webs.com/

    Check out Rizal's firing squad photo on this page.
    http://philippineamericanwar.webs.com/background.htm

    Although a lot of the information on this site are familiar, the rich library of b&w photographs make them more real and more vivid than most of the history books used in our schools. Also many of the information in this website are not taught in our schools (like the 200,000 thousand Filipino civilians killed during the Philippine-American War, probably censored during the American occupation and then became the de facto practice in teaching Philippine history after that).

    I wonder if the inadequate way Philippine history is taught in our schools could be one of the main reasons why Filipinos are not very patriotic compared to other races, which in turn can be related to our economic performance as a country. Now that's a thought for your future blog. What do you think?


    VP

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  3. From Irineo Goce (via email):

    Kung sana, maisa-alangalang din ang JURY systems of court litigations; para magwakas ang nakakasuklam na "hoodlums in robes," at magkaroon ng katinuan ang Justice system dito sa ating bansa.

    At ibasura na rin ang ating pagiging alipin ng dayuhan wika, alinsunod sa kaisipang habilin ng ating pambansang bayani sa Ika-Pitong Kabanata ng El Filibusterismo. Ang matingkad na paliwanag nito ay pwedeng ma-SEARCH MAIL sa "Why the Philippines Is So Poor?"

    Salamat po.

    (Translation: The Jury system will have to be part and parcel of the new independent states. There should also be an attempt to get rid of the foreign languages that have been imposed on the Filipinos, i.e., English and Spanish.)

    ReplyDelete
  4. From Prof. Cesar Torres (via email):

    Dear Mr. Lumba,


    1. Paki please, huwag niyong kalilimutan to distinguish yourself from me. Kung mahaba ang pagsulat ng "Cesar Lumba", seguro kahit "CL" na lang, okay na iyon. Anyway ako, I always end my post with "Cesar Torres", para hindi ako makalimutan ni Mr, Herman Laurel. Ilang taon na ho ba kayo? Are you as senior as Ka Pule?

    2. I had about 16 or 17 pages of verbiage, a commentary on Senator Pimentel's "Federalization" concept when he shared his thoughts with us in 2007 or 2006 yata iyon. Pero hindi ko maayos ayos. Kaya hindi ko naipapadala sa kanya. But it is just here in this Macbook. I will look for it.

    2.a. All our thoughts on breaking up the Philippines, on forming autonomous or independent states out of the 7,107 islands, ako gusto ko iyon. Lalo na ang granting total sovereignty and independence sa ARRM, lalo na ang Maguindanao. If the Moros want to be enslaved by their datus, like the Ampatuans, then let them be. Minsan ganyan ang tako ng kasaysayan.

    2.b. Subalit one publisher of a Filam periodical in Arizona, a famous broadcaster in Marawi when he was still in the Homeland and who worked with Senator Rasul, he is a Christian, simply states: "How do you carve out the Muslim territories from the non-Muslim?" He was probably thinking of the Lanao provinces or even Cotabato. Iyong Basilan, Sulu and Tawi Tawi, doable seguro. Except how can the legitimate interests of the Christians be protected. Or a Pakistan-India model can be used. But the ruptured would be very bloody and very expensive.

    2.c. When Atty Angel Quimpo was still alive, our discussions on the Muslims in Mindanao and Sulu, on the anatomy of poverty in Samar and the Philippines, minsan kasama si Senator Pimentel sa aming discussions, were almost endless. Pero wala na siya. I remember one time, he was telling me that in one survey in Mindanao, kahit iyong mga provinces where the Muslims were in the majority, ayaw nilang mahiwalay from the rest of the Philippines. I think I can understand this sentiment of some Muslims. Morsidy Husin, a Tausug, I refer to him as a Sufi Poet, taga UP, married to a Christian, nagturo sa isang skul na amoy kandila, says that as a Tausug, iyan ang fears niya. Kasi pag mayroon nang Bangsa Moro, na independent, sila sila mismo ang magaaway away, Tausugs, Maguindanaos, I don't know about Maranaos. Perhas Rudy Dianalan can tell us.

    Incidentally Mr. Lumba, itong Worldwide-Filipino-Alliance@yahoogroups.com is sort of a public service, but is not owned or controlled, by the Worldwide Filipino Alliance, Inc. 2010, a non-stock, non-profit corporation registered with the Philippine Securities and Exchange Commission last February 10, 2008. Our members, and Trustees, and Officers are all over the world. We are "Internet-based". We hold consultations and Board meetings through Yahoo Messenger, email, sometimes using Webcam.

    (continued below)

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  5. From Prof. Cesar Torres (continuation):

    I don't know, pero baka kami na lang ang buhay na Filipino Internet-based organization. We are not sure how Migrante International operate. Iyong kapwa ko taga Samar, si John Leonard Monterona, hindi ako sinasagot sa aking mga tanong at pahaging. Iyong mga press releases nila na maganda naman talaga, hindi sinasabi kung ano ang kanilang structure, ano ang kanila decision-making process, sino ang mga officers aside from Ka Luis, Joma, etc. And what the role of a mere "Consultant" in the process of "democratic centralism" is.

    So, have you taken the trouble of reading the basic files sa Files Section ng WFA Dakdakan group, especially ang pinaghirapan ni Arman Muleem (at ako) na Bylaws na the only one of its kind in the entire Philippines and all over the world?

    Would you be interested in being a Member of the WFA NGO 0210?

    We spinned off from PPP. And now it is possible that the Juries Movement will spin off from WFA. And I feel that the Pagarigan Micro Mini Mini Marshal Plan to help the Homeland might spin off soon from WFA NGO and WFA Dakdakan group.

    We can certainly work together in terms of your advocacy on political development and political modernization in the Homeland. Seguro, hindi naman kami alanganin sa impeccable credentials mo, whatever they are. We can send you our resumes kung gusto mong malaman; and in my case, I can provide some references dito sa California at diyan sa Homeland. Mayroon telephone numbers, addresses, and email addresses.

    P.S. Ilinagay ko sa BCC ang mga nakatiwang wang na mga individual emails mo.

    Cesar Torres
    XXXXX

    ReplyDelete
  6. From Jobo, via email:
    Dar Clumba, (to make it diffeent from Cesar Torres)
    Dr. Jose Abueva, former President of UP has a very long article
    on Advantages of Federalism and Parliamentary Govt For The Philippines, way back in 2006. He consented to have it reprinted
    at my new book, Writings3, under construction. His article is quite long which will occupy about 40 pages of my book already.
    You can read it by clicking Dr. Jose Abueva-wikipedia. Then click the link about Federalism under index, I think. In NY, I attended speech by Sen. Pimnetel also several years ago. He is advocate of federalism also. You might want to argue with him. I think it's better to read the opinions of those advocating the idea. I have not formed my own opinion on the matter because it is a heavy topic.
    If there is space in my new book, I will publish your new article, or wait for writings4 later.
    Keep writing. Good luck!
    Jobo

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  7. Hi Jobo,

    My idea is different from that of Dr. Abueva or that of Senator Pimentel. They both advocate federalism, which is merely an overhaul of our present system. In federalism, we will still have a strong President, or if the country goes parliamentary, a strong Prime Minister.

    My idea is to convert to a confederation, which does not have a strong President or Prime Minister. Most powers will reside in the independent states. There will be no national treasury that can be plundered, no ultra-expensive national elections. No BIR to steal from, no Bureau of Customs to corrupt.

    Each state will have its own taxing authority for individuals and businesses (BIR) and for imports (Customs).

    There will be no national Senate and House of Representatives that will insist on pork barrel distributions.

    Each state will be independent, tied loosely to the other states only in the areas of defense and national emergencies (typhoons, earthquakes, mudslides, etc.).

    Regards and good luck on your (our) book.

    Cesar
    - Show quoted text -

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  8. From Roman Guerrero (via email):
    Cesar L,

    I sauggest you work together with Senator Pimentel as your suggestion appears no different from his push for Federalism.

    If that happens, I think our nationhood shall be broken up before reaching its full maturity. Besides, the Local Government Code is already into this business of decentralization and partitioning. The ARMM and CAR are already experiments at partitioning. So far, the ARMM has failed and the latest monument of its failure was the Maguindanao Massacre.

    A partitioned Philippines is a feudal Philippines and no Philippines at all. It is the formula for the disintegration of the homeland.

    Roman

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  9. Hi Roman,

    My suggestion is very different from Senator Pimentel's. He advocates federalism with a strong President or Prime Minister. I advocate a confederation, with a weak President who will serve only a one-year term.

    This distinction is important because there under my suggestion there will be no national treasury that can be plundered.

    All taxes will be collected at the independent states level. So, assuming that the taxing authorities are organized properly in the independent states, there will be no corrupt BIR or Customs in those states.

    Cesar L

    ReplyDelete
  10. From Marlowe Carmello (sent by email):
    The provincial warlord politicians will be truly delighted with this type of confederated governments unless the Grand Jury and Trial jury system will be made as an "ingredient" in the justice system of each "state".

    However, given the fact that none, with some few exceptions perhaps, of those proposing this confederacy know nothing about the jury systems coupled with the ambitions of the warlords to dictate their wishes with more power to control the people like gentle lambs in the name of public order and their so called brand of the rule of law via dictatorship under the care of wolves, the Filipinos will be starting with a chaotic society where only the rich and powerful will first be enjoying the fruits of the confederacy in the beginning.

    In the mean time, the poor will be in the state of "just ti-is" mona while waiting for the time when they will have a true voice in their justice system. For how long? May be in a hundred years as slaves of warlords specially in Mindanao while their peace is kept in place by the rule of the death squads.

    I hope I am wrong and let us keep our fingers crossed.

    Marlowe Camello, Homeland, California

    ReplyDelete
  11. Hi Marlowe,

    When the Founding Fathers were casting about for a system of government before and after the successful American Revolution, they were impressed by the confederation known as the Iroquois confederation. It was a confederation of many Iroquois nations and the Founding Fathers, especially Thomas Jefferson, decided to experiment with that system of government for the then American states.

    The Founding Fathers wanted strong independent states and a weak central government because the desire for independence was very strong among the citizens of the 13 original states.

    The Founding Fathers pivoted and opted for the strong national government system - the Federal Government system - upon realizing that they were in a permanent state of war with England and the native nations (American Indians) and there was a need for a strong President to prosecute those wars.

    The Philippines is not at war with any country, so we don't need a strong President.

    As far as warlords ruling the various independent states, there will undoubtedly be some of that going on. But that is going on right now. And, under the current system, the warlords are apparently supported by the Administration and the Armed Forces of the Philippines.

    One could argue that if the warlords do not have the support of a national government or a national army, the opposition groups might be emboldened to challenge them. Granted, there might be some skirmishes in the ensuing years after partition; that's unavoidable. There's a saying here in the U.S. that from time to time the Tree of Liberty must be watered with the blood of heroes.

    Maybe what we need in the Philippines are some limited blood-letting to finally rid the countryside of the warlords who terrorize their neighbors. And, when the dust clears, the emergent heroes of the resistance would be the natural leaders of the new government that shall be formed.

    Nothing comes cheap in this world, and if free and independent states are the ideal, maybe the cost is some blood being spilled. Nation-building, after all, is serious business and cannot be achieved by those whose talent is crafting Erap and Pandak jokes.

    Cesar Lumba

    ReplyDelete