If Filipinos had a "free look" period of five to ten years, they would not take all that time but instead return the idea of a confederation (or federation) to the salesman immediately. Especially if the salesman is a Tagalog. Filipinos probably would claim that the confederation idea favors the Tagalogs too much and will put the other independent states in a deep hole.
Assuming that the partition of the Philippines is done along the lines of the 17 regions in the Philippines, the poorest regions would be Ilocos, Bicol, Eastern Visayas, Caraga and the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao.
Those regions would have per capita incomes of less than 20% of the figure for Metro Manila. In the case of the ARMM (Autonomous Region) the per capita GDP would be less than 12% of Metro Manila's.
Metro Manila, or more formally the National Capital Region, has an annual per capita income of $10,000+, with Makati having a whopping per capita of $29,000+ and Mandaluyong with an equally impressive $20,000+.
Metro Manila's per capita Gross Domestic Product is the 30th highest in the world. Beijing is barely ahead of Metro Manila, while Jakarta and Delhi, India are immediately behind Manila. Guangdog, China comes right after Delhi, and Bangkok is two places behind Guangdong.
Metro Manila is in giddy company. If Metro Manila becomes a separate country, it will look like Hongkong of a couple of decades ago.
Should the Visayans, the Ilocanos, Kapampangans, etc. reject the idea of a confederation as overwhelmingly favoring Metro Manila? If time were to be frozen, the answer is a resounding "Yes." This idea could be easily dismissed as a ploy by Manilenos to allow it to splinter from the archipelago known as Philippine Islands and never look back.
Time, however, stands still for no one. Along with time, huge changes will quickly follow. What are the prospects for the other regions which will now become independent states - alone or in combination with others?
Metro Manila has developed quickly since Independence on July 4, 1946 while the provinces, especially the remote areas, have stood still. Not completely stood still, for certainly progress has come to those areas albeit at a snail's pace. And it is progress at the barest of all minimums.
It's patchwork progress.
The first time I went back to the Philippines - in 1992, after a 25-year absence - I was dumbfounded when I saw the rivers in the rural areas. What used to be pristine rivers where the local damsels washed their laundry, all I could see were garbage strewn all over the banks, some sticking from beneath the water levels. People were using the rivers to dump their everyday castoffs.
Was there even garbage collection in those areas? In Boracay two years ago, the catamaran I took my family on was caught in a heavy downpour. We had to make an emergency landing in the back of the island. Then it struck me: that's where all the garbage and some of the sewage was ending up.
Even Paradise, it seemed, had been despoiled, all in the name of "progress".
Progress for the hinterlands has come at a tremendous cost. Because of a lack of infrastructure development at par with Manila's, the rural areas are overrun by the trappings of progress.
While people's garbage have increased a thousand-fold (progress is always accompanied by a geometric explosion of garbage), people still have no jobs or adequate education. People have nothing to look forward to but the prospect of going abroad someday - to Saudi Arabia, to Hongkong, to Malaysia, to Canada, California or New York. The luckiest ones have only to go to the nearest Western Union to claim remittances from relatives abroad.
The nearest convention center is in front of Aling Inday's sari-sari, where locals congregate at night to drink lambanog and trade jokes. Lately, the karaoke bars have served as the magnets for locals to trade jokes and drink.
The only truly significant, transformative progress over the years is the one that has come to Metro Manila, Cebu, Angeles City, Subic and Davao and only portions that are in excess of Metro Manila's needs have trickled off to the provinces. I know, some of you are thinking, what about Baguio, General Santos City, Cagayan de Oro? What about this and that city?
Once the regions become independent states, they will be able to carve their own destinies and implement laws that favor them. They will not need the permission of a Manila government to pursue their own dreams. All progress will accrue to them, not to an overbearing Metro Manila.
If the independent states wish to open their countries to foreign investments by scrapping the prohibition against foreign majority ownership of businesses, they will be free to do so. There will be no Manila government trying to stop them.
If those states want to scrap minimum wage laws to make them more competitive in the world market, there will be no Manila government frowning its face on them.
If those states want to offer their natural resources - industrial and precious metals - for development by foreign interests, there will be no Manila government trying to thwart their will.
If those states want to lease their territories to governments for commercial or military purposes, there will be no Metro Manila halting the construction.
If those states want to pursue social policies that differ from Manila's, they will be free to do so.
For example, if some independent states favor a more progressive family planning policy, there will be no Manila government or CBCP shaking a stick in their face. Spain, the source of the country's religiosity, has after all leaped into the 21st century and has legalized abortion (under certain strict conditions) and divorce. I do not personally favor abortion and divorce, but if the independent states want them, who am I to stand in their way?
Were some of the independent states to make ten-year temporary marriage contracts legal, there will be no overbearing CBCP to stop them. Because there will be no CBCP. Each independent state will have its own archbishop and lineup of bishops - or none at all, as in the case of the ARMM.
If some independent states want a more liberal or more aggressive tax policy, they will be free to follow their wishes, without some bureaucrat in Manila telling them they can't do it.
Each independent state shall be able to adopt economic, educational and social policies without interference from the other independent states. They will be free to set off on a course that is their very own.
All tax collections and revenues shall accrue to the states and will not go through Manila, where some funds are now being used to line pockets of some very powerful people there. There will be no corruption or favoritism at the national level, because there will be no national treasury to plunder or distribute to a national government's favorites.
Each state will be free to organize the equivalent of its own Bureau of Internal Revenue and Bureau of Customs. The old corruption-ridden BIR and Customs of the current Philippine government shall be scrapped and replaced, hopefully, with equivalent local agencies that will honestly collect income taxes and customs duties. It will be an opportunity to start over and set up tax collection agencies in the mold of the Internal Revenue Service of the U.S. In fact, I would advise the states to seek assistance from the U.S. government in setting up their Internal Revenue and Customs laws and offices.
Each state will have its own constitution and legal system. It can make justice happen as fast or as slow as its people want to. The corrupt arreglo system in Manila will be replaced by judicial systems that can dispense justice. Will there be a jury system? Only if the locals want it.
Finally, and most importantly, the focus of all activity in each of the independent states is the rise in the standard of living and educational level of their people. There will be no Manila-centric policies to pursue.
There is no doubt that the partitioning of the Philippines into independent states will be beneficial to the archipelago as a whole. We have to be careful, however, that the independent states we set up shall be economically and politically viable.
Because of what happened recently in Haiti, and more distantly in Somalia, the question of viability is front and center. Viability is the reason some states shall not be organized according to the ancient divisions of language and nations. For example, the Central Luzon state shall be made up of Kapampangans and Tagalogs.
I have tentatively drawn plans for setting up the various independent states and offer the following lineup. (All chartered cities shall be absorbed by the provinces where they are situated.)
1. Metro Manila, or National Capital Region.
2. Ilocandia - Ilocos, the Cagayan Valley Region, which includes Batanes, along with Abra, Benguet, Baguio City, Ifugao, Apayao, Kalinga and Mountain Province.
3. Central Luzon, made up of Pampanga, Bataan, Bulacan, Neva Ecija, Tarlac and Zambales.
4. Calabarzon - Cavite, Batangas, Laguna, Quezon, Aurora and Rizal.
5. Bicol Region - Albay, Camarines Norte and Sur, Catanduanes and Sorsogon.
6. Western Visayas and Mimaropa - Aklan, Antique, Guimaras Capiz, Iloilo, Negros Occidental, Marinduque, Mindoro, Palawan and Romblon.
7. Central and Eastern Visayas - Bohol, Cebu, Negros Oriental, Siquijor, Samar, Leyte and Biliran.
8. Northern Mindanao - Bukidnon, Camiguin, Lanao del Norte, Misamis Occidental and Oriental.
9. Central and Southern Mindanao - Davao peninsula, Cotabato, Sarangani, Sultan Kudarat, Agusan, Dinagat and Surigao.
10. Muslim Mindanao (Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao) - Basilan, Lanao del Sur, Maguindanao, Sulu and Tawi-Tawi.
There you have it, folks. Toss these in your heads and let's discuss. But before you hop on your soapboxes, I want you to know that upon breakup of the Philippines, the Metro Manila will be tasked with the development of Bicol to help that region become a viable state. The Bicolanos will have an incentive to build their nation properly, for the alternative will be their absorption into the Calabarzon state and resultant loss of the Bicolanos' country of their own.
Central Visayas, and Central and Southern Mindanao will be depended upon to help Northern Mindanao and the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao become viable states. If that doesn't work, the ARMM shall be allowed to break off in the future and become a part of Malaysia, while Northern Mindanao is absorbed by Central and Southern Mindanao.
I want to research these groups further, with an eye on economic viability for each of the states. This lineup is by no means final, so dear readers, please keep your comments and observations coming.
