Sunday, March 6, 2011

Singularity



For the first time in a long time I stayed up till 2:00 a.m. Saturday morning. And so I spent much of Saturday recuperating. I watched the History Channel all day practically, comfortably sunk in the couch in the master bedroom, with a light blanket draped over me, the kind of blanket that has pockets for one's feet.

I watched in amazement many scientists argue that earth must have been visited by intelligent beings in the ancient times because that is the only way we can explain the Great Pyramid of Giza in Egypt, the massive sculptures on Easter Island and other monuments to a superior civilization that flourished on earth when the homo sapiens species had just barely come out of the wilderness. Those superior beings obviously used sophisticated tools that would be considered a marvel even today. Archaeologists point to numerous cave and wall drawings and carvings depicting humans in what look like today's astronaut suits and in the controls of what look like space ships. There appear to be great similarities in the drawings supposedly made by ancient humans and today's astronauts.

I of course had seen this movie before. Nothing new, except the bold assertion from astronomers that it is only a matter of time - not IF - before man discovers other life forms in the universe. The History Channel program asserts that while in the not-too-distant past scientists overwhelmingly held that the earth is unique in the universe, that our earth is probably the ultimate exception in that it supports life, now the prevailing notion among scientists is that there must be life on other planets somewhere in the universe, probably on not one but many of the heavenly bodies circling certain suns in the Milky Way. And that's just the Milky Way.

The lady astronomer interviewed bravely predicted that within our lifetimes we will discover life outside our planet. What would be hard to tell, she said, is if that life is intelligent life.

The lady astronomer (astronomatrix?) is confident that the very powerful telescopes on earth and mounted in deep space probes will allow man to discover planets that have water. Once these planets - or moons - are found, it will be a "mere" analysing the data to determine if life does exist in the waters.

We of course will not know if the life that is found is intelligent unless we humans interact with that life.

That means we have to get closer to that life. Which means we have to go on a voyage of discovery. The nearest candidates for extra-terrestrial life is millions, even billions of miles away. Man cannot travel that far. It's nearly impossible.

Or can he?

Lately, scientists have revived the notion of Singularity, which was first introduced by futurists in the 1960s. According to futurists, there will come a time when men and machines will become indistinguishable. Thus the word Singularity.

In a recent issue of Time magazine, in the New York Times, on CNN and other major channels, the buzz word is now Singularity. Futurists are predicting that at some point, probably in 2045, robots will be able to duplicate human intelligence to the point that they will also have the capacity for empathy and other emotions. Shortly after that Singularity moment, there will be a machine that will be able to store knowledge equivalent to the combined knowledge of all 7 billion people on earth.

The Time magazine article goes one step further. It quotes experts who say that the post-Singularity era will make man immortal. How does this happen? Imagine yourself at the point of death in 2045 or shortly after. A robot would go into a room with you and scan your brain for all your knowledge and your memory, including your emotional memory that may at that point be for the most part hidden from even you.

The robot, armed with what amounts to be your essence - your personality - will then absorb that scanned and digitized person into its own cpu (central processing unit). After that procedure, which probably will take no more than a minute, the robot becomes you. It will have your consciousness, your emotions, your loves, your hatreds, etc.

This robot is immortal. It will grow as it accumulates more knowledge and stacks up more memories. It will interact with your friends and family and they will recognize you in that robot. The robot probably would even look like you, either your older version or younger version.

If you're a Don Juan type, the robot might even be equipped to function as a lover to people who depend on you for emotional attachment and fulfillment.

Recently, an IBM computer called Watson challenged two of Jeopardy's all-time champions and demolished them both. A few years ago, a computer called Deep Blue trounced the then reigning world chess champion, Gary Kasparov, who admitted that man was no longer a match for a machine that could think thousands of moves ahead in a matter of seconds. The computers and robots in the future will be infinitely smarter and will have not only artificial intelligence but also artificial emotions and human intuition.

OK. Now assume that you have become a machine and that you are now immortal. You can then go on a space probe that will travel billions of miles and not miss a beat. You will no longer need to sleep. You will be permanently posted watching TV screens in your spaceship, looking for life in other planets in the Milky Way and other galaxies.

Time will not be an object because you are now timeless. You are immortal. You can travel at the speed of light because you are a machine.

What happens to religion? Well, your human body has died and your soul has gone wherever it's supposed to go. The only thing that the machine has that used to belong to you is your memory, your consciousness. That part of you is immortal.

Science fiction? No. Futurists are very confident that this will happen eventually. Computing power since the early days has increased by a factor of 2. First, it increased by twice the original increase, then 4 times, then 8 times, then 16 times, then 32 times, and on and on and on. Someday, probably by 2045, computing power will be such that it will be possible for robots to function as humans with their artificial intelligence, complete with human emotions, idiosyncrasies and intuitions.

The post-Singularity world? Futurists are unanimous in saying that that world is unknowable. Will the machines eventually replace humans? Will they cause a world war so devastating that humans will be wiped off the face of the earth, replaced by machines with human consciousness and human attributes? Or will they usher in a new world order where national boundaries and national origins no longer matter, and where people will respond to John Lennon's famous invitation in "Imagine":
I hope someday you will join us
And the world will be as one.

It's a giddily-scary thought because, as the Chinese would probably characterize the not-too-distant future, it presents an "opportunity riding the crest of a dangerous wind."