There are indications that there might be an upset in the making in the Philippine presidential election on Monday, May 10. My friend, Danny Gil, who has moved back to the Philippines for good after a lifetime as an engineer in the U.S., says the younger Filipinos are out in force for Gilbert Teodoro, the current fourth placer in most surveys.
Gibo Teodoro's last rally drew 130,000 people, mostly young idealistic Pinoys and Pinays, while Noynoy Aquino's could attract only 65,000 people. This, despite the fact that Noynoy's army had been deployed to haul in as many Filipinos as they could for the rally.
My friend also reports that there was not much energy in Villar's rally, which was attended by an estimated 30,000. In fact, former President Estrada's rally drew much more than Villar's. Never mind that Estrada was a convicted plunderer until pardoned by President Arroyo and is known world-wide as the tenth most corrupt political leader in the world. The poor and disenfranchised in the Philippines still want him to be their President.
There are rumors that Estrada has an agimat, or anting-anting, which allegedly has magical powers that have fixed people's fascination for this former B-movie actor for all time. I can't comment on the reliability of such reports, but I do know that if there is indeed an agimat or anting-anting it does not work on the educated and elite Filipinos. Most in the educated and elite Filipino community regard the 71-year-old former President as a clownish nuisance.
But, since a good slice of the Filipino electorate think elections are a joke and can be stolen by the rich and powerful, who knows who the people will actually vote for?
My friend Danny reminds me that former President Fidel Ramos consistently showed up in fourth place in surveys leading up to election day in 1992 but managed to pull off an upset victory.
Convicted plunderer Estrada, who is currently in second place in some surveys and fast closing in on Noynoy's lead, may win by a nose. To the consternation of the intellectuals, reformers, elitists, educators, religious leaders, and just about everyone who cares about the future of governance in the Philippines.
My friend's enthusiasm for Gilbert Teodoro is, unfortunately, unwarranted because Teodoro's appeal is with the educated elite and the idealistic youth. This appeal never translates to victory in the polls because the C, D and E classes (the poor and lower middle classes) comprise 70 to 80% of the electorate and those are not going to vote for Gibo Teodoro.
I personally would be delighted by a Teodoro victory because he is a nephew of one of the friends I grew up with in Manila. His mother used to have lunch with us guys at my friend's house, though I could never count her as my friend. She was not the overly friendly type, was apparently shy and reserved, and seemingly looked upon us friends of her brother's as a curious bunch. Nonetheless, a Teodoro victory would please me mainly because it would please my childhood friend, but I just don't think it is possible on Monday. 2016 perhaps?
The biggest surprise of the 2010 election is Senator Manny Villar, who went from number one at the start of the campaign season to his current third place in most of the pre-election surveys. This is a personal tragedy of Greek mythology proportions. A man who has never lost an election and who has built up a real estate empire from an initial shoe-string operation appears to have self-destructed in recent months.
Villar can't seem to burnish his image after a torrent of critical newspaper and Internet stories flooded Filipino consciousness. This proves that if a story is repeated over and over, pretty soon even the marginally literate and downright stupid will believe it.
Of course, since Villar appears to be the Arroyo administration's secret true ally, the voting machines could end up deciding the eventual winner of the election. Whoever controls the voting machines controls the outcome of the election. President Gloria Arroyo controls those voting machines, according to the cynics, and the result of the presidential election has already been pre-ordained.
The Filipino people, especially the so-called Yellow army of leading candidate Noynoy Aquino, are gearing up for an election night vigil and street rallies and protests. Stay tuned, the aftermath may be the most interesting.
I do not condone any kind of revolution, other than a "kick-the-bums-out" revolution in the ballot box, but I would completely understand if the Filipino people finally go out in the streets and enforce their will through bloody and noisy demonstrations, if not outright armed rebellion.
OK, snap out of it, Cesar. None of this will happen because if there are glitches in the voting machines, the Philippine Commission on Elections can still count the paper ballots that shall be cast and read by the machines. What? No paper ballots? But that's impossible. The Filipino people were promised paper ballots as back-up to the machine counts.
I don't have the Filipino channels in my DirecTV satellite subscription but I will call DirecTV this morning and subscribe to the Filipino channels. I think the days after Monday's election will test the will and character of the Filipino people and the patience of the military, which has been quietly watching recent trends and developments with eagle eyes.
I'd like to know whose side the Philippine army is on. But the army is no longer the monolithic army of bygone days. There are factions and fissures now. Which faction is more numerous and cohesive: the PMA class of 1978 who are reputed Gloria Arroyo allies, or the Magdalo faction, whose leader - Cesar Trillanes - is quietly pulling strings from behind the bars in his prison cell?
This is Philippine democracy in action. One front-row seat, please.
Too bad I can't drink beer or any kind of liquor anymore. Doctor's orders. So I'll just have to make do with the popcorn and the root beer.
I'm sure Obama's people are watching the Philippine elections, which will decide not only the next President but also half of its senators and all of its congress people. The country remains a showcase for American-style democracy. If the Philippines messes up big-time, it will be #@!%$-ing big, as Vice President Joe Biden might whisper into Obama's ear.
The IMF, the World Bank and other lenders are watching the unfolding zarzuela, ever-concerned that any kind of major political upheaval in the Philippines could damage the country's ability to service its sovereign debts. A Philippine default on its foreign loans is just what the world doesn't need, with the Greeks almost certainly eventually defaulting on their debts and the Spaniards hot on their trail.
But, should the world really worry about a Philippine default? The country owes $80 billion, but more than half of this is owed to Filipino creditors. A $40 billion default will not be seismic to a world economy that is 61.1 trillion U.S. dollars. That would put Philippine debt to the world at .00007, 7 thousandths of 1 percent.
Of course, the country could still surprise us, with the widely-expected winner - Noynoy Aquino - emerging as a clear victor. What are the odds of this happening? I'd say there's a 50-50 chance. In the Philippines, the candidate the plurality of Filipinos vote for is not always declared the winner. Not unless it is a landslide of historic proportions.
By late Tuesday or early Wednesday, the world may know who the next President of the Philippines shall be. I'm still counting on Noynoy Aquino to pull this off.
The Magdalos will just have to wait for a more opportune time to take over the reins of government in the Philippines.
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Speaking of odds, shortly after the Mayweather-Mosely fight, Vegas odds-makers installed Manny Pacquiao a -120 favorite to defeat Mayweather in what appears to be the inevitable Pacquiao-Mayweather fight late this year or early next year. I don't know what -120 favorite odds are, so someone who is familiar with betting odds will just have to educate us.
I was at a dance party last Saturday, May 1st, and wasn't interested in the Mayweather-Mosely fight. One of the guests at the party lives close by and had bought the fight's pay-per-view and invited all interested parties but I declined since I am contemptible of Mayweather, who intentionally scuttled the Pacquio fight by making impossible demands on Pacquiao.
Turns out to be a very instructive fight. Mayweather proved that he can take a punch. Mosely rocked Mayweather with a one-two combination in the second round, but the latter just shook it off and dominated the remaining rounds.
Mayweather will be a very tough fight for Pacquiao because the guy is hard to hit. He fights like a snake. He strikes, slithers away, strikes again, slithers away. This is the way Mayweather fights. Pacquiao can be frustrated by a fighter like him.
The odds-makers are right, though. It's impossible to hide from Manny. Sooner or later, Manny will tag Mayweather and then Manny's patented swarming, piranha-like feeding frenzy will take over and Mayweather will find himself sitting on the canvas.
I don't think Manny can knock Mayweather out because, let's face it, the guy is a great undefeated fighter who will find a way to survive Manny's ferocity. He will be able to run and clinch, run and clinch and throw enough rabbit punches to frustrate Manny.
Manny by decision, maybe even a split decision. The -120 odds in favor of Manny appears to be accurate, whatever that means.
I may even defy my doctors and pop open a San Miguel beer for that one.
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I always try to read David Brooks' columns in the New York Times. All NYT columnists are highly-educated and well-read, but Brooks stands half-a-head above them all. He has an amazing grasp of social issues and he can communicate his insights with crystalline clarity.
Nearly everyone in the academic circles of America knows that Asian Americans nearly always rise to the top. In fact, the joke among male high school seniors is that if they want to score high on SAT tests they have to date Asian chicks.
50% of all adult Asian Americans are college graduates, while only 31% of whites are, according to Brooks. The equivalent figures for blacks is 17% and for Hispanics it's 13%.
In terms of actual achievement, what this translates to are the following:
1. Asian Americans have a life expectancy of 87 years, compared with 79 years for whites and 73 for blacks. The more educated a person the better he takes care of himself, which is why there is some correlation between educational levels and healthy lifestyles.
2. In survey after survey, Asian Americans in the New York metropolitan region out-earn whites and all other minority classes. The correlation between educational levels and lifetime earnings is well documented, so it's not surprising that Asian Americans have risen to the top economically in the U.S. Caution: as a group, not as individuals. Whites still produce, far and away, the richest individuals in this country.
Asian Americans share the tradition of valuing education - especially college education - with the people in their home countries. They have made the judgment over the years that education transforms lives. This judgment has been proven correct in their home countries, in the U.S. and just about everywhere.
Which brings us back full circle to the Philippines. The country produces a bumper crop of engineers and other college graduates, but only in relation to available jobs. There are so few job openings for college graduates in the Philippines that even though only a small percentage of Filipinos earn college degrees, it feels like the country is producing too many.
We know, however, that globally education is the key to economic ascendancy. The Philippines must find a way to educate its masses adequately and encourage them to go for a college degree. If 50% of Filipinos eventually earn their college degree, they will not only live longer, they will become economically dominant. Just as the 50% of Asian Americans who have college degrees have become economically dominant.
College education is so cheap in the Philippines that if the government finds the will to provide a college education to a majority of college-age Filipinos it probably can be done.
My book, Out of the Misty Sea We Must (Blueprint for a New Philippines), is in the final stages of completion. Central in that book is the mandate for overhauling the public school system in the Philippines completely - turning it right side up - thereby elevating the skill levels of Filipino workers and raising the standards of all colleges and universities in the Philippines.
It should be out soon and available at amazon.com. I hope you'll buy it. You'll be surprised at the quality of the photography. Those who know the creative photographer, Carlos Esguerra, will of course not be surprised at all. But the majority in the Philippine-American community will be pleasantly surprised.
Oh, by the way, the editorial content is not too shabby and will be worth all of the $11.95 that the book will cost. $7 for orders originating in the Philippines.
My friend, Jobo Elizes, is the publisher.
